Economic data in March took a back seat to the fireworks surrounding the meltdowns of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank. The debate over “hard/soft/no landing” pivoted during the month from “no” to “soft”, given the sudden banking crisis here in the U.S., and globally with the shotgun marriage of Credit Suisse to UBS. The economic data, however, continued to remain fairly robust, anchored again by a strong labor market, and steady if not somewhat sticky inflation.
The Unemployment Rate for February came in a bit higher than anticipated at +3.6% (versus expectations for +3.4%), as nonfarm payrolls edged up +311k, versus the prior month’s gain of +504k. Average Hourly Earnings ticked up +0.2% MoM (+4.6% YoY), while the Labor Force Participation Rate came in at 62.5%. The January JOLTS Job Openings report came in at 10.8 million, down from the prior month reading of 11.2 million, though still very robust.
Inflationary pressures remain, however they don’t appear to be worsening at this point. February CPI showed a +0.4% MoM rise (down from January’s +0.5% surge), which translates to a 6.0% YoY rise in prices, largely meeting analyst expectations. Most of the increase for the month was attributed to Shelter, with Food price rises a close second. Energy prices fell -0.6% MoM as oil and natural gas prices declined. Core CPI rose +0.5% MoM and +5.5% YoY.
Producer prices fell -0.1% MoM in February with demand for machinery and wholesale vehicles softening. YoY, PPI rose +4.6% (below expectations of a +5.4% gain), while ex-Food and Energy, wholesale prices were flat on the month and up +4.4% YoY.
Despite surging volatility in March associated with the SVB collapse, the Federal Reserve hiked short-term interest rates by 25 basis points at its March 22nd meeting, citing the ongoing battle with inflation as its main focus. Chair Powell and fellow FOMC members continue to muddy the waters with regard to future rate policy, making hawkish comments one day and then sounding more dovish the next. The May 3rd meeting will be important in terms of setting the tone for the balance of the year, with any signs of an end to the current rate hiking cycle likely being met with bullish enthusiasm.
To read further about domestic and international equity, fixed-income and alternative investments please open the full paper below:
Nottingham Advisors offers both institutional and individual clients experience, sophistication, and professionalism when helping them achieve their goals. With over 40 years of serving Western New York and clients in more than 30 states, Nottingham tailors each solution to fit the specific needs of each client.
For more information about Nottingham’s offerings, visit www.nottinghamadv.flywheelstaging.com or call 716-633-3800.
Nottingham Advisors, LLC (“Nottingham”) is an SEC registered investment adviser located in Amherst, New York. Registration does not imply a certain level of skill or training. Nottingham and its representatives are in compliance with the current registration and notice filing requirements imposed upon SEC registered investment advisers by those states in which Nottingham maintains clients. Nottingham may only transact business in those states in which it is registered, notice filed, or qualifies for an exemption or exclusion from registration or notice filing requirements. For information pertaining to the registration status of Nottingham, please contact Nottingham or refer to the Investment Advisor Public Disclosure Website (www.adviserinfo.sec.gov). Any subsequent, direct communication by Nottingham with a prospective client shall be conducted by a representative that is either registered or qualifies for an exemption or exclusion from registration in the state where the prospective client resides.
This newsletter is limited to the dissemination of general information pertaining to Nottingham’s investment advisory services. As such nothing herein should be construed as the provision of personalized investment advice. The information contained herein is based upon certain assumptions, theories and principles that do not completely or accurately reflect your specific circumstances. Information presented herein is subject to change without notice and should not be considered as a solicitation to buy or sell any security. Adhering to the assumptions, theories and principles serving the basis for the information contained herein should not be interpreted to provide a guarantee of future performance or a guarantee of achieving overall financial objectives. As investment returns, inflation, taxes and other economic conditions vary, your actual results may vary significantly. Furthermore, this newsletter contains certain forward-looking statements that indicate future possibilities. Due to known and unknown risks, other uncertainties and factors, actual results may differ materially from the expectations portrayed in such forward-looking statements. Readers are cautioned not to place undue reliance on forward-looking statements, which speak only as of their dates. As such, there is no guarantee that the views and opinions expressed in this article will come to pass. This newsletter should not be construed to limit or otherwise restrict Nottingham’s investment decisions.
This newsletter contains information derived from third party sources. Although we believe these third party sources to be reliable, we make no representations as to the accuracy or completeness of any information prepared by any unaffiliated third party incorporated herein, and take no responsibility therefore. Some portions of this newsletter include the use of charts or graphs. These are intended as visual aids only, and in no way should any client or prospective client interpret these visual aids as a method by which investment decisions should be made. We have provided performance results of certain market indices for illustrative purposes only as it is not possible to directly invest in an index. Indices are unmanaged, hypothetical vehicles that serve as market indicators and do not account for the deduction of management fees or transaction costs generally associated with investable products, which otherwise have the effect of reducing the performance of an actual investment portfolio. It should not be assumed that your account performance or the volatility of any securities held in your account will correspond directly to any benchmark index. A description of each index is available from us upon request.
Investing in the stock market involves gains and losses and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
For additional information about Nottingham, including fees and services, send for our Disclosure Brochure, Part 2A or Wrap Brochure, Part 2A Appendix 1 of our Form ADV using the contact information herein.
